The price of Ethereum (ETH) skyrocketed by 20% today, surpassing the $3,600 mark, following Bloomberg analyst's prediction of a potential Ethereum ETF approval. This surge comes after Coinbase hinted at a possible surprise decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Just days ago, Coinbase research suggested in a note that a spot Ethereum ETF approval was on the horizon, mirroring the Bloomberg analyst's prediction. This may suggest that Coinbase might take advantage of this news to deliberately uplift the Ethereum price (click this to check the latest price analysis of ETH), as it holds a pretty large amount of ETH.
"While the timing of the approval remains uncertain," the note stated, "we believe a US spot ETH ETF is inevitable. The rationale used for approving spot BTC ETFs is equally applicable to ETH ETFs. The correlation between CME futures and spot prices is high enough for CME's surveillance to effectively detect misconduct in the spot market."
Coinbase further suggested that the period chosen for the correlation study in the Bitcoin ETF approval could have been a deliberate tactic to pave the way for a similar approach with Ethereum. They point to previous analysis suggesting a correlation between spot and futures prices for ETH that is comparable to Bitcoin.
While the odds of an approval in May were previously considered low, Coinbase believes the market could be surprised by a positive SEC decision. They cite Polymarket's current odds of a May 31st approval at only 16%, along with the significant discount at which the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) is trading relative to its net asset value (NAV). Based on this, Coinbase suggests the actual approval odds could be closer to 30-40%.
The cryptocurrency market is eagerly awaiting further developments on the Ethereum ETF front. With the price already surging on speculation, a concrete SEC decision could have a major impact on the value of Ethereum in the coming days.
