This week in prediction markets consists of Trump's outreach to crypto voters, which appears to have improved his chances in prediction markets. On top of that, Doug Burgum remains behind Tim Scott as a potential Republican VP candidate. Additionally, a surprise approval of Ethereum ETF filings by the SEC resulted in significant gains for some bettors, despite disputes over the contract's resolution.
Overall, the prediction markets are showing a shift in favor of Trump as he strategically targets different voter demographics. The approval of Ethereum ETF filings by the SEC also indicates growing interest and investment in the cryptocurrency market. The resulting rise in Ethereum price reflects broader market trends, which could influence voter sentiment in the tech-savvy and investment-focused demographics. Hence, Trump’s promise to commute Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht’s sentence and his vow to position the U.S. as a leader in digital assets have possibly strengthened his position against Biden, according to prediction markets. On PredictIt, Biden’s shares dropped from 46 cents to 44 cents, while Trump gained two percentage points on Polymarket, now leading with 56% against Biden’s 37%.
Many are closely watching these developments as the 2024 election approaches. The crypto community's support for Trump could be a game-changer, especially with his strong pro-crypto stance. Prediction markets, such as PredictIt and Polymarket, provide insights into the evolving political landscape and the potential outcomes of the upcoming election.
Despite the prediction markets showing a more significant shift than polls, proponents argue that betting markets are more reliable as they involve financial stakes. Additionally, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum’s prospects as a VP candidate have risen, though he still trails Tim Scott.
In another notable development, Polymarket bettors saw a major return on Ethereum ETF approval contracts. Despite ongoing debates about the approval process, the SEC’s green-lighting of 19b-4 filings led to significant payouts. One bettor turned $300 into $4,358, while another saw a 61% return, growing their investment from just over $10,000 to $16,902.
