Technical Analysis

Bitcoin moved back above $69,000 after Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated he would end the conflict in exchange for security guarantees. The shift in risk sentiment also coincided with Brent sliding 5% (from above $104 to the $94 range), Nasdaq gaining 3.1%, and BTC swinging roughly from $66,000 to $69,000 intraday.

Bitcoin traded at $67.7K after rebounding from a $66.2K low on Tuesday, 31 March, while holding above the $65.6K demand zone formed early March. Analysts highlighted that short-term holders remain underwater, with SOPR at 0.989 and the STH realized price near $85.8K, conditions that could see rallies met with sell pressure.

CryptoQuant contributor CryptoMe says Bitcoin could still decline this year, with the Realized Price used as a key level to watch. The analysis places Realized Price around $54,000 versus a market price near $67,000, a roughly 19.4% gap that has historically aligned with accumulation zones when spot trades at or below it. CryptoMe also noted past cycles where BTC stayed under Realized Price from seven days up to 301 days, warning recoveries may take time.

Fidelity Digital Assets said Bitcoin has fallen about 50% this market cycle, a smaller post-ATH drawdown than the historical 80% to 90% declines seen in past cycles. The firm's analyst Zack Wainwright added that cycle-to-cycle returns have shown "diminishing" moves, while separate analysts suggested a potential bottom window in late September or early October 2026 and noted BTC remains below key moving averages.

Glassnode said smaller Bitcoin holder cohorts shifted into distribution during the latest upswing, based on its Wallet Size Accumulation Trend Score. The <1 BTC and 1–10 BTC groups moved into heavy selling as BTC pushed toward $76,000, while the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort only slightly crossed above neutral. BTC later traded around $66,700 after a pullback.

Ondo (ONDO) has demonstrated significant relative strength, rising 3.13% to trade at $0.2726 as of Wednesday, April 1, 2026. While the broader crypto market faced a slight contraction, with Bitcoin (BTC) dipping 0.24%, ONDO decoupled from the bearish sentiment, supported by a nearly 40% surge in 24-hour trading volume. This alpha move comes on the heels of a massive institutional milestone that positions Ondo as the primary bridge between traditional finance and decentralized markets.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed the session on March 31, 2026, with a massive 12.80% gain, ending at $99.05. The rally marks a definitive turning point for the data infrastructure leader, which had faced some technical pressure earlier in the month despite a strong Q4 earnings beat. Investors flooded back into the stock following the announcement of a strategic AI Factory partnership with Nvidia (NVDA), underpinned by a direct $2 billion cash infusion.

XRP is hovering near $1.30–$1.35 and continues to defend the broader $1.30–$1.50 band after a longer downtrend from around $2.40. Since the end of February, Binance has seen a rise in XRP withdrawal activity, with multiple days above 4,000 outflow transactions and peaks nearing 6,000, largely in the 1,000–100,000 XRP bracket. The setup points to possible accumulation, while $1.50 remains key resistance and $1.25 is the level to watch for downside risk.

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Ethereum has recovered from the $1,935–$1,936 area and moved back above $2,000, with price now consolidating above $2,050. ETH is trading above $2,020 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average, while the next key resistance is cited near $2,150. If ETH fails to clear $2,120, supports highlighted include $2,050, $2,020, and then $1,980.