1. Market Overview
This past week, Bitcoin's performance was pretty impressive. It started off at $35,071 and made its way up to a high of $35,311 during the week. It did see some lows, dipping down to $34,604, but by the week's end, it managed to close just a tad lower than where it began, at $35,022. The spotlight was on November 1st when Bitcoin hit this year's record high of $35,912. This happened right after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided not to hike up the interest rates. This move made a lot of people in the market really optimistic because it usually means that all kinds of assets, including Bitcoin, might increase in value.
With the interest rates holding steady for now, people are expecting that Bitcoin could see its price goes up. But there's also a bit of worry in the air because if inflation starts to creep up again, it could eat away at the value of money that's just sitting around, which isn't great news for people holding onto cash. The big players, like whales (people with a lot of Bitcoin) and institutional investors, are still the ones moving the market. They're behind over 99% of all Bitcoin trades, which shows just how much influence they have. Also, we're seeing more wallets holding a decent chunk of Bitcoin, suggesting that more serious investors are getting in on the action.
As for the U.S. economy, it's kind of sending mixed signals. There's growth happening, but inflation is higher than what's considered comfortable. Although the rate hikes have been put on pause by the Fed, which might boost asset prices, this pause could be temporary if inflation makes a return, potentially leading to higher rates in the future. The job market's strong, but with all these talks about a possible recession hinted at by what's called an inverted yield curve—a situation where long-term debts pay less interest than short-term ones—it's a bit of a confusing time.
The market is bracing for further potential swings with the anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's address. His speech at the International Monetary Fund conference, scheduled for 2:00 pm ET on Thursday, November 9th, 2023, is expected to be a focal point for investors.
2. Daily Candle Chart Analysis
During the trading session of November 5-6, 2023, Bitcoin displayed notable activity on the daily chart. It kicked off the session at an opening price of $35,071 and witnessed a peak at $35,311, suggesting a strong buying interest. Despite a dip to a low of $34,604, indicative of some selling pressure, the session concluded with Bitcoin slightly below the opening value, at a close of $35,022.
What this tells us is that Bitcoin is testing the waters—it's trying to see how high it can go and finding that there's still a lot of interest in buying, even when the price dips a bit. The fact that it reached a new high following the FOMC's decision could mean we'll see more price increases. But there's also a chance things could swing the other way if worries about inflation start to grow.
3. Trading Signal
Let's break down what our market tools are telling us:
- Oscillators: With the RSI being high, it suggests that Bitcoin is possibly being bought more than usual, which could mean a price drop might be around the corner if everyone decides to sell at once.
- MACD: Currently, it's pointing towards a possible change in the wind, which might not favor those looking to buy.
- Moving Averages: It is suggesting that the bullish (upward) trend is strong and might continue.
- Enter: If BTC price drops to $35,131.
- Take-Profit: First target at $37,728, then $40,796.
- Stop-Loss: Set at $32,800.
- Enter: If BTC price falls below 32,700.
- Take-Profit: Set at $31,900.
- Stop-Loss: Set at $35,700.
- This signal does not include leverage recommendations. Adjust leverage according to your financial capacity and risk appetite.
4. Trading Summary from Last Week
On October 31st, 2023, we set our trading signal accordingly. We monitored the market conditions and prepared to take a long position based on our analysis and the bullish sentiment observed in the trading volumes and price action.
The trade was executed on a LONG position on November 1st, with a margin of USDT 1000, using 100x leverage with an average open price of $35,300.
Following our strategy and responding to market volatility, we closed the position (Take Profit) on November 2nd at a price of $35,615 to take profit. This closure was in anticipation of the high volatility caused by news and rumors regarding a Bitcoin ETF.
The trade secured a profit of $892.35, aligning with our profit-taking strategy and demonstrating effective trade management under uncertain market conditions.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and trading or investing in cryptocurrencies carries inherent risks. Prices can change rapidly and unpredictably, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, it is strongly recommended that you conduct your research, consider your financial situation, risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor. Any actions you take based on the information provided here are your sole responsibility, and we shall not be liable for any losses or damages incurred. Please be aware of the risks and make informed decisions when dealing with cryptocurrencies or any financial instruments.