Event Period:
2023-05-30 20:30 to 2023-06-03 20:30 (UTC+8)
US Non-Farm Payroll Data Release:
2023-06-02 20:30 (UTC+8)
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(1) US Debt Ceiling Issue
Voting Date: 2023-06-05
The US debt ceiling represents the maximum amount that the federal government is authorized by the US Congress to borrow, and the government resorts to debt issuance when government expenditures exceed revenues. If US government national debt levels bump up against the ceiling, then the Treasury Department must resort to other extraordinary measures to pay government obligations and expenditures unless the ceiling is raised again. As of early 2023, the US has reached its statutory debt limit of $31.4 trillion.
On May 27, 2023, US President Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reached a tentative agreement to lift the debt limit for two years, ending a months-long stalemate.
McCarthy has vowed to give House members 72 hours to read the legislation before bringing it to the floor for a vote. Can the House and Senate pass the bill before June 5th?
(2) May Non-Farm Payroll Data Release
Data Release Date: 2023-06-02
The "US Non-Farm Payroll" data, released by the US Department of Labor, reflects the number of new jobs added in non-agricultural sectors, as well as the employment and unemployment rates.
These figures have a significant impact on the US dollar's value and can trigger market fluctuations in exchange rates, crude oil, precious metals, etc. It has thus become one of the most important sources for predicting the trend of the financial market.
Recent economic data suggests persistent inflation in the US. Will the upcoming non-farm payroll data cool down as expected? Figures larger than forecast could further strengthen expectations of a rate hike in June.
| Released Date: 2023-05-05 | Released Figure: 253,000 | Unemployment Rate: 3.40% |
| Gold Fluctuation Range: $34 | The Profitability of London Gold in 1 Lot Size: $3,400 | ADP: 296,000 |
Reasons for significant gold price fluctuation:
The US non-farm payrolls added 253,000 jobs in April, higher than the expected 185,000 and marked the 12th consecutive month of surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate in April dropped to 3.4%, lower than the previous data of 3.5% and the expected data of 3.6%, reaching a new 53-year low set in January this year. Wage growth continued to accelerate in April by 4.4%, which is higher than the expected 4.2%. Overall, the US non-farm payrolls rose more than expected in April, indicating that the job market hasn't cooled down and the rate cut is expected to subside. The exceptionally strong employment report dispelled market expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Fed, leading to an increase in expectations of another rate hike in June. As a result, the gold price experienced a significant drop (Historical data is for reference only).
Released Data > Expected Data and Previous Data
If the released data is greater than the previous data, which is 253,000, this is bullish for the US dollar while the price of precious metals may decline.
Released Data < Expected Data and Previous Data
If the released data is lower than the expected data, which is 188,000, this is bearish for the US dollar while the price of precious metals may skyrocket.
Expected Data > Released Data > Previous Data
Since the previous report has registered a number of 253,000, and the market expects the current non-farm payroll data to be around 188,000, so this situation will not occur.
Previous Data > Released Data > Expected Data
If the released data is between 188,000 and 253,000, the price of precious metals may spiral downward.
