Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $71,000 at the time of writing, staying relatively steady despite escalating geopolitical tensions tied to the U.S., Israel, Gulf states, and Iran. The article argues that a resurfacing Bitcoin–gasoline “fractal,” alongside a $470 billion weekly drop in global M2 and stablecoin supply hitting $316.9 billion, points to cautious liquidity conditions that could keep pressure on BTC.

Bitcoin retested $67,500 support on Monday as investors shifted toward cash while gold logged its steepest correction in more than 50 years. US 5-year Treasury yields rose to 4.10% and oil moved above $90, as futures pricing showed a 20.5% chance of a July rate hike. The risk-off backdrop also weighed on tech stocks, with several major names down 10% or more over the past six weeks.

Strategy is positioning its Bitcoin strategy around supply scarcity, after outlining a combined $42 billion funding plan for future BTC purchases. The firm recently added 1,031 BTC, taking holdings to 762,099 BTC (about 3.81% of total supply), as analysts debate whether sustained demand and tighter exchange reserves could intensify a supply squeeze.

On March 23, U.S. President Donald Trump said progress in secret talks led him to declare a five-day pause on any action targeting Iran’s infrastructure, pushing oil from about $113 down to near $100. Crypto prices turned higher as total market value rose around 3.4% to roughly $2.43 trillion, while Bitcoin rebounded to about $70,800 after dipping near $67,000.

Irish authorities have accessed a dormant wallet holding 500 BTC, worth about $32 million (€30 million), marking the first successful unlock in a 6,000 BTC stash forfeited to the state in a 2019 case. The breakthrough, reported Tuesday, followed seven years of inaccessibility tied to missing private keys and was supported by Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre. Investigators now aim to apply the same method to the remaining 11 wallets.

Bitcoin turned lower on Tuesday after touching an intraday high of $71,382, briefly slipping below $69,000 amid conflicting signals around U.S.–Iran talks. The move deepened to $68,893 by 1:30 p.m. EST before a rebound toward $69,500, leaving BTC down nearly 2.5% over 24 hours and pushing market cap back under $1.4 trillion.

Bernstein analysts said Bitcoin has likely already set its cycle low and reiterated a $150,000 year-end 2026 target. Separate volatility work cited an implied floor near $60,000, while traders are watching $65,000 and $70,000 as key technical levels. Bitcoin was quoted at $69,867 at the time of writing after rebounding from an early-February low near $60,000.

Bernstein reiterated on March 24 that Bitcoin may have already formed a cycle low after falling 50% from its peak, arguing institutional buying is reshaping the market's typical four-year rhythm. The firm raised its 2026 price target to $150,000, citing ~30% downside correction paired with less than 5% ETF outflows and projecting a potential 2027 peak of $200,000.