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Damage to Middle East energy infrastructure extends global oil and gas supply crunch
A ceasefire may curb the fighting, but widespread damage to energy infrastructure across the Middle East has pushed global oil and gas markets into a drawn-out supply shock. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is only an initial step, with repairs expected to take months—and in some cases years.
The Wall Street Journal reported on April 8 that the war in Iran severely damaged dozens of refineries, oil fields and natural gas export terminals. The International Energy Agency estimates more than 40 critical energy assets were hit, triggering what it called the largest supply disruption on record. Rystad Energy put the repair bill for the region’s energy system at more than $25 billion.
After the ceasefire announcement, Brent crude fell about 12% on Wednesday to $96 a barrel, but it remains far above the roughly $60 level seen in early January. Eurasia Group expects oil to stay above $80 a barrel this year even after hostilities end. Henning Gloystein, managing director of Eurasia Group’s Energy Practice, said supply pressure would persist even if Hormuz reopens quickly.
Refining outages, not tanker routes, now dominate market concerns. Gloystein estimates roughly one-third of Gulf refineries were damaged in airstrikes, a loss he said will take at least several months to repair. Even if upstream production restarts, shortages of refined fuels such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel could linger.
Among the hardest-hit sites is the UAE’s Ruwais refinery, one of the world’s largest. Rystad says damage is concentrated in the western section, which represents half of total capacity, with full recovery likely to take several months. Kuwait faces a similar squeeze. Gloystein said refinery damage there has already tightened marine and aviation fuels in Asia and Europe. A drone strike last week sparked a fire at the Mina Ahmad refinery, adding to losses from multiple incidents in March. Kuwait National Petroleum Company’s CEO said last month it would take three to four months after the war ends to restore full output.
In Bahrain, state-owned Bapco Energies declared force majeure last month after a fire at the Sitra refinery, suspending contractual obligations. The plant processes about 400,000 barrels a day and had just completed an upgrade; the damage has significantly reduced Bahrain’s refining capacity.
LNG infrastructure has taken some of the most severe hits. At Ras Laffan in Qatar—one of the world’s largest LNG complexes—Iranian strikes disabled about 17% of capacity, according to Rystad. Full restoration could stretch to around 2030, with repair costs estimated near $10 billion. QatarEnergy confirmed that two of Ras Laffan’s 14 liquefaction trains were damaged. Kayrros analyst Saeed Ali Muneeb, citing satellite imagery, said one train suffered a collapse of a large cryogenic heat exchanger and another sustained heavy fire damage.
Exponent engineer Harri Kytömäki said the cryogenic heat exchanger is a highly customized unit, roughly as tall as a 15-story building and more than 15 feet in diameter, packed with thousands of miles of precision piping. “Once it’s damaged, you have to rebuild one from scratch,” he said, noting that manufacturing a replacement alone can take more than a year. The report also pointed to multiyear delivery delays for the gas turbines used to drive LNG compressor trains, amid strong demand linked to data-center gas needs.
Also at Ras Laffan, Shell’s Pearl gas-to-liquids facility was badly damaged. Shell said one of its two production lines will be shut for at least one year.
Disruptions have spread to ports and upstream production. Fujairah Port in the UAE—a major oil storage, trading and bunkering hub outside the Strait of Hormuz—has been repeatedly targeted by Iranian drones, leading to intermittent operations. Upstream, U.S. Energy Information Administration data show Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain shut in about 7.5 million barrels per day of crude production in March because oil could not be transported.
The report warned that abrupt shut-ins can also damage wells: rapid pressure drops can clog wellbores with heavy wax, requiring costly chemical treatments to restart. In older fields, the shock can permanently alter reservoir behavior, leading to irreversible production losses.
Reconstruction is also colliding with shortages of capital equipment and skilled labor. Custom transformers, valves and gas turbines can take years to replace even in peacetime, while specialized engineers and welders have left the conflict zone alongside Western contractors, creating a gap that cannot be filled quickly.
Fraser McKay, head of upstream analysis at Wood Mackenzie, said repair bills will eat into the roughly $100 billion the oil and gas industry had planned to invest in the region this year, spanning routine maintenance and new developments. He said companies will prioritize repairs over growth projects, and competition for equipment and engineering capacity across the broader energy sector will push costs higher. “It’s not just a matter of funds, but also of people,” McKay said. “You can’t instantly double the capacity to deploy resources to that region.”
Kytömäki underscored the scale of the damage: “We have never seen anything like this.” The ceasefire may have halted the shooting, but the deeper test for global energy markets is only beginning.
Source: Wall Street Journal