Trader and commentator Scott Melker says the current Bitcoin drawdown should be viewed as a deep bull-market dip rather than a classic bear market, after BTC peaked at $126K in October 2025. He points to four bottom-type signals he tracks—weekly RSI extremes, an all-time-low Fear & Greed reading, record "Bitcoin going to zero" search interest, and price nearing the 200-week moving average—while arguing altcoin liquidity has been pulled into prediction markets.

Bitcoin's social sentiment turned sharply bearish on Saturday, April 4, as ongoing volatility kept BTC well below $70,000 and around $66,800. Data showed bullish-to-bearish commentary slipping to 0.81-to-1, the weakest positive reading since Feb. 28. The report also noted that institutions and large holders have remained net buyers via Bitcoin ETFs despite broader market weakness.

On April 4, 2026, Bitcoin's social sentiment fell to its most fearful level since Feb. 28, even as the price traded around $67,160 with RSI near 60 and above the 50-day SMA. Over the prior 72 hours, whale wallets increased holdings from 4.21M to 4.23M BTC, a net gain of about 10,000 BTC, while large exchange inflows also hit their highest level since April 2024.

With Bitcoin holding the $65,000-$66,000 range, Ark Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood said the period of 85%-95% drawdowns tied to a "very new technology" is finished. She argued that broader adoption and rising institutional participation have helped BTC become a "proven technology" and "proven monetary system," even as the market remains in a correction.

Brian Armstrong said on April 2, 2026 that he will personally spend time on Bitcoin's quantum-resistance efforts and oversee Coinbase's post-quantum cryptography work. The move comes as late-2025 research from Google Quantum AI and Caltech modeled a hypothetical quantum system that could break Bitcoin encryption in under nine minutes, close to the network's 10-minute block interval. Coinbase is also pointing to the need for community consensus through the BIP process before any protocol-level upgrade can be adopted.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are concentrating Bitcoin liquidity into U.S. market sessions, which now represent 47% of global BTC spot volume versus 38% before ETFs. Kaiko data show IBIT trading at $16–18 billion per day, while weekend conditions feature wider spreads, with the average BTC–USDT spread rising from 0.012% on weekdays to 0.028% and activity falling roughly 20–40%.

Bitcoin (BTC) holders with 100–10,000 BTC realized losses averaging $337 million per day in Q1 2026, marking the sharpest quarterly pace since 2022. Sharks (100–1,000 BTC) averaged $188.5 million per day and whales (1,000–10,000 BTC) averaged $147.5 million, bringing combined 2026 realized losses to about $30.91 billion. Long-term holders selling after more than six months also showed elevated realized losses near $200 million per day on a 30-day average since November 2025, suggesting downside risk may persist.

Bitcoin hovered just above $66,900 ahead of the Good Friday long weekend as U.S. spot ETF trading and CME futures were set to pause, potentially thinning liquidity. March 2026 spot ETF inflows totaled $1.32 billion, but with those channels offline, attention shifts to whether BTC can defend the $65,000 area during lower-volume trading.