The Reserve Bank of Australia has lifted the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6 per cent, adding to concerns about housing supply. Rising construction costs and tighter borrowing conditions are squeezing builders and would-be buyers. Industry executives warn the higher rate settings will make fewer projects viable, with Sydney expected to be hit particularly hard because of high land costs.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6%, marking its fourth increase this year and the highest level in 15 years. The move has pushed borrowing capacity to its lowest point since the post-Global Financial Crisis recovery, as home prices extend a five-month slide and sit 2.7% below their peak. The central bank warned inflation is not expected to return to its 2%-3% target band for at least another 12 months and said further hikes may be needed if price pressures persist.

A Finder survey shows 90% of polled economists and finance experts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% at its upcoming meeting. Nearly half also forecast a second hike before year-end, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest level since the peak of the 2008 global financial crisis. Markets are also pricing in two increases by early next year, with a 90% probability of a move to 4.6% on Tuesday.

Major Australian banks have lifted fixed mortgage rates ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy meeting, with Macquarie Bank raising its 1-year fixed rate to 6.49%, in line with NAB and ANZ. The four major banks are forecasting the RBA will lift the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60% at its September 29 meeting. New data show the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August despite 39,000 jobs added, as all gains came from part-time work while 6,000 full-time roles were lost.

Australia’s four major banks now forecast the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on September 29. ANZ also expects back-to-back increases in September and November, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, returning it to levels seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. The banks point to Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices, an inflation risk the RBA is seen as prioritising, adding to the urgency for another hike.

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock warned that the 75 basis points of rate increases delivered so far this year may not be sufficient to bring inflation under control, and said another sharp rise in oil prices would feed directly into prices. Against that backdrop, Westpac lifted owner-occupier fixed home loan rates by as much as 0.45 percentage points. The bank’s five-year fixed rate rose to 7.14%, nearly double a typical rate hike.

Several major Australian banks have raised fixed-rate home loan rates ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting, with NAB and ANZ increasing rates by up to 0.20 percentage points. Most large banks expect a 0.25 percentage point rate rise in November, while NAB warned the move could come as early as September 29. Data show only 7% of new loans are being taken out on fixed rates, and the market’s lowest fixed rate is 5.79%.

ANZ Research says Australia’s current 4.35% cash rate is already the highest among major Western economies. Interbank futures pricing implies the cash rate could climb to 4.99% by mid2027, above expected peak rates for the US, UK, New Zealand, the eurozone and Canada. The analysis points to a prolonged stretch of elevated borrowing costs for Australian households.

Market pricing indicates a November rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia is now fully priced in, with a significant chance of a move in September. Traders are factoring in the cash rate rising from 4.35% to 4.60%, and seeing the policy rate peaking near 4.8% by early 2027. Expectations also include some probability of a follow-up hike in the new year.