Bhutan has transferred roughly 375 BTC, worth about $25.2 million, on March 31, Arkham data shows, continuing a steady run of 2026 outflows that appear tied to trading counterparties and possible liquidation. Arkham said 374.9 BTC was sent to an unlabeled address previously associated with flows toward Galaxy Digital. Onchain Lens noted that earlier transfers along the same route ended up at institutional trading desks, reinforcing market focus on whether Bhutan is converting mined Bitcoin into cash. The latest move follows several sizeable transfers in March. Bhutan sent 973 BTC, worth about $72 million, over two days, then moved another 519.7 BTC valued at $36.75 million to external wallets. A separate transfer of 123.7 BTC worth $8.5 million was recorded on March 27. Weekly outflows topped 1,000 BTC. Arkham has tracked more than $183 million in total 2026 movements, including around $144.91 million in net flows to unlabeled wallets. Bhutan's Bitcoin holdings have fallen sharply from prior highs. Arkham estimates current reserves near 3,954 BTC, valued at about $263.9 million, down from roughly 13,000 BTC reported in October 2024. Other estimates place holdings at 10,769 BTC, worth around $714 million, reflecting differences in wallet coverage and valuation timing. Both sets of figures point to a sustained drawdown, alongside an estimated 25% decline in portfolio value over the past three months. Bhutan's share is now about 0.051% of Bitcoin's total supply. The country began building reserves through Bitcoin mining in 2019, using surplus hydropower through Druk Holding and Investments. At its peak, the strategy was cited as contributing nearly 40% of GDP. Arkham data suggests mining may have halted around November 2024, with no major inflows recorded since. Activity in 2026 has instead been characterized by recurring sales, often in $5 million to $10 million batches, with proceeds directed to infrastructure and government spending linked to Gelephu Mindfulness City.

Bitcoin (BTC) ended Q1 2026 at $66,619, a 23.8% slide from $87,508 on January 1. It was the cryptocurrency's worst first-quarter showing since Q1 2018, when BTC fell 50%. The decline also deepens a six-month downturn. Bitcoin is now 41.6% below its Q4 2025 peak of $114,057. Bitrue analysts, cited by The Block, point to ETF outflows, persistent inflation, a cautious Federal Reserve and broad risk-off sentiment as the main drivers. The broader crypto market has also pulled back sharply from its October 2025 all-time highs as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify.

ChainThink, citing CoinDesk, reported that Donald Trump said he expects Iran-related hostilities to end within two to three weeks, adding that this outlook is not contingent on reaching an agreement with Iran. He also said he will deliver a nationwide address at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Following the remarks, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the President of the European Council that Tehran is willing to end the war but wants guarantees against future attacks. Risk assets responded positively. Asia-Pacific equity markets jumped and S&P 500 futures moved higher. Crypto markets were more muted: Bitcoin has largely traded in a $65,000 to $73,000 range during the conflict. Two Prime CEO Alex Blume said three potential catalysts could push Bitcoin higher in the second quarter: Morgan Stanley's launch of a Bitcoin ETF, continued funding for Bitcoin purchases via STRC preferred shares under Strategy, and a rapid de-escalation of tensions involving Iran. Morgan Stanley's newly approved Bitcoin ETF charges a 14-basis-point fee, 11 basis points below the industry average. The product will be offered to the firm's 16,000 financial advisors and the $6.2 trillion in client assets they oversee.

Huo Xing Cai Jing reported on April 1, citing CoinDesk, that Donald Trump said he expects the war with Iran to end within two to three weeks, and did not tie that outlook to reaching an agreement with Tehran. He said he will deliver a national address at 9 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. In parallel, Iranian President Pezeshkian told the President of the European Council that Tehran "has the necessary willingness to end this war," while seeking guarantees against future attacks. Risk assets reacted positively. Asia-Pacific equities jumped and S&P 500 futures advanced. Crypto markets were less responsive, with Bitcoin largely holding a $65,000 to $73,000 range during the conflict. Alex Blume, CEO of Two Prime, pointed to three potential second-quarter catalysts for Bitcoin: Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF launch, ongoing capital from STRC preferred shares under Strategy to fund Bitcoin purchases, and a rapid end to the Iran war. Morgan Stanley's newly approved Bitcoin ETF carries a 14-basis-point fee, 11 basis points below the industry average. The product will be distributed to the firm's 16,000 financial advisors and the $6.2 trillion in assets they oversee.

Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs posted net inflows of $118 million on March 31, according to SoSoValue data. BlackRock's IBIT led the group, attracting $98.42 million in net new money. Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs also recorded net inflows for the day, totaling $31.17 million. BlackRock's ETHA accounted for $24.17 million of that amount.

April 1 — Huo Xing Finance said Coinbob hot wallet tracking shows the swing-trader whale wallet "pensionusdt.eth" (0x0ddf…) opened a 3x leveraged BTC short earlier today. Over the past hour, the wallet increased the position by about 250 BTC, worth roughly $17.28 million. Total short exposure has climbed to $51.8 million, lifting the average entry price from $68,121 to $68,389. The position is currently showing an unrealized loss of about $570,000, or 3.3%. The wallet still has $19.55 million in margin available, suggesting capacity to add further. Historically, the address has tended to build BTC short positions to around 1,000 BTC before completing accumulation.

April 1 — Bitcoin closed the first quarter of 2026 down 23.8%, its worst Q1 showing since 2018, The Block reported, cited by Huo Xing Finance. In Q1 2018, Bitcoin fell 50%. Following a 23% decline in Q4 2025, Bitcoin's six-month drawdown has reached roughly 41.6%. Market participants pointed to a mix of ETF flows and macro headwinds. Andri Fauzan Adziima, Research Director at Bitrue, said the Q1 drop was largely driven by outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with elevated inflation, the Federal Reserve's cautious posture and broader risk aversion adding pressure. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $965 million in Q1. Withdrawals totaled $1.8 billion across January and February, while March saw $1.32 billion in inflows, partially offsetting earlier redemptions. Analysts said the long-term thesis remains largely unchanged. Min Jung, a researcher at Presto Research, said there is little sign of a structural shift in Bitcoin's long-term narrative, noting that institutional participation and adoption trends remain intact—suggesting the move is cyclical rather than fundamental. She added that a Q2 rebound would likely require greater macro clarity, particularly around the Middle East. Nick Ruck, Director of Research at LVRG, said a second-quarter reversal would depend on renewed net ETF inflows, tangible progress on pro-crypto regulation in the U.S., and a turn toward looser monetary conditions.

Google Quantum AI has published a technical blog post outlining new resource estimates for quantum attacks on the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP256), the cryptographic foundation behind Bitcoin and many other blockchain systems. The post, dated March 31, 2026, is co-authored by Ryan Babbush (Director of Quantum Algorithms Research, Google Quantum AI) and Hartmut Neven (VP of Engineering, Google Quantum AI and Google Research). Its central takeaway: the estimated number of physical qubits required to break ECDLP256 has dropped by roughly 20x compared with prior estimates. In a whitepaper accompanying the update, the authors describe two fault-tolerant circuit designs implementing Shor's algorithm for ECDLP256. One uses fewer than 1,200 logical qubits with 90 million Toffoli gates; the other uses fewer than 1,450 logical qubits with 70 million Toffoli gates. Under standard hardware assumptions aligned with Google's superconducting quantum roadmap, they estimate the circuits could run in minutes on a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) requiring fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. Google argues the results strengthen the case for accelerating migration to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). The company notes it recently proposed a 2029 migration timeline and says PQC is already a mature path for securing blockchains against future CRQCs. The post points to existing examples of post-quantum blockchains as well as experimental deployments of PQC on blockchains that are currently vulnerable to quantum attacks. For the cryptocurrency ecosystem, the authors recommend steps to reduce near-term exposure, including limiting the exposure or reuse of vulnerable wallet addresses. They also suggest exploring policy options related to abandoned cryptocurrencies, given the long-term implications of quantum-enabled key recovery. A key element of the publication is its disclosure approach. The authors emphasize that blockchain security discussions are unusually sensitive because market confidence can be damaged by fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), and they argue that unsound quantum-breaking estimates can themselves function as an attack vector. To balance transparency with risk, Google says it is releasing verification materials based on a "zero-knowledge proof" method, allowing third parties to validate the resource estimates without revealing the underlying quantum circuits or operational attack details. Google says it hopes the work will help align quantum computing, security, cryptocurrency and policy communities around responsible disclosure practices for quantum cryptanalysis, while supporting long-term resilience of the broader digital economy.

Bitcoin ended the first quarter with a 24% decline, marking its worst Q1 performance since 2018.