The Federal Reserve's April 2026 Beige Book said economic activity rose at a slight to modest pace across most Fed districts. The report highlighted a sharp run-up in energy costs tied to the Iran War, alongside broad-based uncertainty weighing on the outlook.

April 16 — A Reuters survey shows nearly two-thirds of economists expect the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to 1% by the end of June. With uncertainty stemming from the Iran war, markets are pricing the odds of a move this month at roughly the same as a hike in June. Economists broadly still see another policy tightening this quarter, a view that has held steady since the U.S. and Israel entered into conflict with Iran on Feb. 28. The fighting has intensified worries over higher energy costs, a renewed inflation impulse and further yen weakness, reinforcing expectations for a more hawkish BoJ. In the April 7–14 poll, 46 of 71 economists (65%) forecast the policy rate would reach 1% by end-June, up from 60% in March and 58% in February. Among 40 respondents who specified timing, 38% pointed to April and 35% to June. In last month's survey, June drew the largest share at 32%, followed by July at 30% and April at 27%. Beyond June, the median forecast calls for borrowing costs to rise to 1.25% in the fourth quarter, slightly earlier than previously expected. The median also projects a further 25-basis-point increase to 1.50% in the third quarter of 2027, with rates then steady through year-end, although a handful of institutions see a move to 1.75%.

1. Federal Reserve chair nominee Walsh may have difficulty securing congressional approval by May 15. 2. Maji Brother increased his long exposure to BTC and HYPE, taking the combined position value to more than $56.5 million. 3. Market view: Bitcoin advanced in step with U.S. equities, but the options market continues to price in notable downside risk. 4. A senior Trump aide said the U.S. has the ability to blockade Iranian ports "indefinitely". 5. A newly created wallet withdrew 20 million WLFI—worth about $1.62 million—from a centralized exchange. 6. Market view: After Bitcoin touched $76,000, selling pressure picked up and exchange inflows climbed to a recent high. 7. The Bless project team transferred 300 million BLESS tokens and sold them, sending the token down more than 55%.

Spot ETFs tied to BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP recorded net inflows on Apr. 15. BTC led with $186.03M, followed by ETH at $67.85M, XRP at $17.11M and SOL at $5.36M.

Iran has proposed measures to allow vessels to transit safely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz as part of its ongoing negotiations with the United States, Reuters reported.

Iran has reportedly proposed a mechanism to ensure safe passage for vessels transiting the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to mitigate the threat of attacks in the critical waterway. This offer, according to Reuters, was presented during Tehran's ongoing negotiations with the United States. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital global chokepoint for oil and gas shipments, making maritime security in the region a paramount international concern. The proposal suggests a diplomatic effort by Iran to de-escalate tensions and provide a secure corridor for international shipping, signaling a potential area of discussion within broader bilateral engagements between the two nations.

China reported 5% GDP growth in the first quarter, beating analyst expectations. Exports rose 14.7% year over year, industrial output increased 6.1%, and urban fixed-asset investment gained 1.7%. The details were more mixed. Retail sales grew only 1.7%, property investment fell 11.2%, and export growth cooled sharply in March to 2.5% from 21.8%. Factory-gate prices also rose for the first time in three years. The takeaway: the headline pace looks resilient, but rising costs and weak domestic demand persist, leaving growth reliant on exports and manufacturing that is sensitive to oil prices. Do you think this mix could pressure Chinese stocks in Q2?

China's economy expanded 5% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, outpacing expectations and showing little immediate drag from the early fallout of the Iran War, according to AP. Economists cautioned that longer-term risks remain.

U.S. crude oil exports surged to an unprecedented 12.7 million barrels per day last week, establishing a new record high. This significant increase, as detailed in a recent report, coincides with the intensification of the conflict involving Iran, a critical development in global energy geopolitics. The record export volume underscores the United States' pivotal role in stabilizing international oil markets amidst heightened regional instability. This surge reflects robust global demand and the U.S.'s expanded production capabilities, positioning it as a crucial supplier during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. The ongoing conflict's impact on Middle Eastern oil flows likely contributes to increased reliance on alternative sources, with U.S. exports filling a growing portion of this demand.