Polymarket Prices Higher Iran Ceasefire Chances as Trump Says US Is in Talks

Polymarket trading shows rising probabilities for a US-Iran ceasefire as deadlines extend from March 31 through Dec. 31, while near-term odds remain low despite heavier early-pool volume. The shift comes after Trump said the U.S. is "in negotiations right now" with Iran, and after a New York Times-reported 15-point framework was delivered to Tehran via Pakistan.