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Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC test: June 17 dot plot as markets price a 3.50%–3.75% hold
Markets are largely pricing the Federal Reserve to keep its 3.50%–3.75% target range unchanged at the June 16–17 meeting, which will be Kevin Warsh’s first as FOMC chair. Expectations are clustered around a hold for June 17, 2026, while traders also focus on the updated dot plot and projections for clues on whether cuts slip deeper into 2027.