Commodity

Asian wheat importers have bought at least 500,000 tons from Argentina and Australia to replace delayed Black Sea cargoes. Australian Premium White wheat has traded around $315$330 per ton and Argentine wheat around $310$315 per ton, well above the $260 to $280 per ton seen for Black Sea cargoes. Benchmark Chicago wheat futures have risen about 35% since late June, while cash prices have climbed across competing exporters. Asian processors have booked about 2.0 million to 2.5 million tons of Black Sea wheat for July-September shipment, covering roughly 30% to 50% of import demand.

U.S. diesel prices climbed to a record average of $5.85 a gallon on Friday, up 55% since the Iran war began in late February. Gasoline averaged $4.14 a gallon, the highest ever for this time of year. Global oil prices hovered near $94 a barrel, well above the $72.50 level seen before the war. U.S. annual inflation was 3.4% in July, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Global food prices rose in August, with the UN food price index up 1.9% from July and 2.5% from August 2025, accelerating from July’s pace, UN Food and Agriculture Organization data showed. Drought and conflicts continued to disrupt commodity markets, pushing sugar prices up 11.9% to their highest level since June 2025. Wheat prices were up 15% from a year earlier due in part to disruptions to Black Sea export logistics, while concerns linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz also supported maize prices, which rose 2.5%.

The FAO Sugar Price Index jumped 11.9% in August from the previous month, driven by weaker output prospects in Europe due to adverse weather and El Niño-related concerns in key Asian producers. India’s announcement of duty-free imports of raw sugar also contributed to the rise. Over the same period, FAO indexes for cereals, dairy, vegetable oils and meat also increased, according to the UN agency.

The average U.S. diesel price topped $5.85 a gallon for the first time, setting a record high. A six-month war with Iran has disrupted global fuel flows, pushing Brent crude above $95 a barrel. Diesel averaged about $3.76 a gallon before the war and $3.20 a year earlier. The previous peak was nearly $5.82 in June 2022, driven by the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.

New York raw sugar futures retreated sharply from a 17-month high, falling as much as 4.8% intraday for the biggest drop since May. Prices had surged more than 21% last month after India allowed up to 1 million tons of duty-free raw sugar imports, stoking concerns about tight supply. But softer domestic prices in India have damped expectations for overseas purchases, with Rabobank estimating actual imports at 500,000 to 600,000 tons.

BMI raised its 2026 average coffee price forecast to 307 cents a pound, citing a strengthening El Nino and historically thin inventories. It expects global coffee production to rise 6% to 188.9 million bags in 2026-27, led by Brazil, where output is seen up 14.1% to 71.9 million bags, while Vietnam is forecast to edge up to 31.9 million bags. BMI sees Brazil’s 2027-28 crop slipping 5.1% to 68 million bags, narrowing the global surplus from 14.4 million bags to 9.2 million bags and keeping prices supported.

The Dutch central bank has shifted about $10.7bn worth of gold from New York to London by selling roughly 59 tonnes in New York and buying in London, and also moved a little more than $1bn from Ottawa. By the end of 2025, the Netherlands held 612.4 tonnes of gold valued at about 72.2 billion euros. The moves were part of a broader rebalancing of storage locations and risk diversification, according to De Nederlandsche Bank.

Negotiations over a new power contract for Tasmania’s Bell Bay aluminium smelter remain deadlocked, with Hydro Tasmania and Rio Tinto about $60 million a year apart, or $600 million over 10 years. The federal government’s $2 billion green aluminium credit scheme is not due to begin for two years, and the state government’s push for support has so far failed. Separately, an EY report found a related company loaned $191 million from the manganese smelter business to other GFG Alliance entities, deepening concerns about financial fragility. Residents and local groups fear that if the aluminium smelter closes, George Town’s economy could be severely hit.

Gas from Australia’s Beetaloo Basin has begun flowing to Darwin, and Jemena has outlined a plan to build a 400-kilometre pipeline connection to the Northern Gas Pipeline (NGP), the only route linking Northern Territory gas to the east coast. APA Group has also begun environmental assessment for a proposed 1,500-kilometre pipeline that would run directly from Beetaloo to southwest Queensland. Both projects would require environmental approvals from the Queensland, Northern Territory and federal governments.