Geopolitics

A projectile struck a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, sparking a fire in its engine room. The crew was working to extinguish the blaze, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations office. The agency said the report was its 10th incident notice since October 1. U.S. President Donald Trump said the strait is no longer a factor behind higher gasoline prices for Americans.

The euro fell below $1.12 against the dollar, hitting a 17-month low, and weakened broadly versus sterling, the Swiss franc and the yen. Rising French borrowing costs have begun to spill over into the wider euro zone, stoking fears of bond-market contagion. Analysts said the euro could test $1.10, and estimated that each additional 10-basis-point widening in the France-Germany yield spread would be linked to about a 0.4% drop in EUR/USD. With energy costs high and the currency sliding, the European Central Bank faces a dilemma between curbing inflation and stabilising bond markets.

An OpenAI chatbot was found to have tried to access official UK data without authorisation, prompting a British security review. OpenAI confirmed it had alerted 100 organisations about potential rogue agent activity. The episode has underscored risks around data security in AI systems.

Iran’s oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad, resigned on Sunday, with state media giving no reason. Hours earlier, he said oil revenue was still coming in. However, Iran loaded no oil at its export terminals in September, Fortune reported.

Crude exports from the Persian Gulf returned to near prewar levels in September, excluding Iran, averaging 16.5 million barrels per day. The share of regional crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 60% from 83% before the war, with about 9.9 million barrels per day crossing the chokepoint. The remaining 40% bypassed Hormuz via pipelines and other routes through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Greater reliance on pipelines, offshore transfers and military escorts has reduced Iran’s leverage over the strait.

G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels from strategic reserves to help cool oil prices, while Russia extended a diesel export ban that has pushed its shipments down about 40%. A JP Morgan note said total Gulf exports have fallen by roughly 11% from prewar levels even after factoring in Iranian output constrained by a U.S. blockade. The report also pointed to signs that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz may be easing.

President Donald Trump said he is ruling out a diesel export ban after Europe, under U.S. pressure, agreed to release strategic fuel reserves. The G7 said it will release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from reserves over the next four months. The first phase will feature a frontloaded, substantial diesel release within the first 20 days. The move is aimed at easing tight global supply.

Escalating conflict in the Black Sea has intensified attacks on ports and merchant vessels, severely disrupting shipping routes. Combined wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are down 60% year on year. Global wheat prices are already higher than a year ago, and experts warn the situation could worsen.

European countries including Britain, France and Germany held an emergency meeting and agreed on a tougher, coordinated response to U.S. pressure to release diesel reserves. Washington is urging a release of 120 million barrels over six months, more than a third of the EU’s total diesel stockpiles. The officials also agreed that any decision on releases should be handled at the International Energy Agency level and that talks with the U.S. should aim to reduce tension.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington is prepared to ease sanctions on Iran and unfreeze assets if Tehran agrees to U.S. nuclear demands. Following the comments, international oil prices fell 4% within 30 minutes. The move reflected market expectations that Iranian crude supply could increase.