Macro

US core consumer prices rose 0.2% in July from the prior month and increased 2.5% from a year earlier, matching the slowest pace since March 2021. Headline CPI climbed 0.1% on the month and 3.4% year on year. Gasoline briefly moved back above $4 a gallon in July, but the month’s average remained below June while hotel and motel rates fell 3.3% and rent measures both rose 0.3%. The figures eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep tightening policy.

The U.S. Treasury is set to auction $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday, with the when-issued market indicating a yield around 5.23%, which would be the highest borrowing cost since 2001. Long-term Treasury yields have pushed past 5% this year as investors weigh energy-driven inflation risks and expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer. Traders cut the implied probability of a September rate hike to about 35% from roughly 50% earlier in the week. Interest costs on U.S. public debt have reached $1.17 trillion so far this fiscal year, up 15% from a year earlier.

U.S. producer inflation in July came in below expectations, with headline PPI up 0.1% month over month and core PPI rising 0.2%, both under the Dow Jones consensus. On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI increased 4.7% and core PPI rose 4.2%. After the release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates fell further.

U.S. retail inflation rose 0.1% in July and the annual rate eased to 3.4%, cutting the implied probability of a September Fed hike to 36%, according to CME FedWatch. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.67%. India’s benchmark government bond yield also slipped 2 basis points to 6.7582%, while Brent crude dropped 2% to $87.20 a barrel. Investors are watching New Delhi’s 320 billion rupee debt sale on Friday for signals on demand.

Nasdaq ISE has filed a proposed rule change with the SEC (File Number SR-ISE-2026-42) to expand a standardized framework for options on crypto ETF-related trusts to cover BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. The proposal would require at least 85% of a trust’s net asset value to be made up of holdings that underlie derivatives contracts, while allowing up to 15% in digital commodities that do not meet derivatives-market requirements. It also sets a liquidity threshold, requiring each digital commodity to have an average daily global market value of at least $700 million over the prior 12 months. The framework outlines a pathway for more major crypto assets to enter the ETF options market.

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, matching expectations and cooling bets on a Federal Reserve rate increase in September. Money markets now price a 34% chance of a hike, down from 55% a week earlier. Asia-Pacific equities rose broadly, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index up 1.08% and South Korea’s Kospi surging 3.78%. U.S. and European equity index futures edged higher, while Brent slipped 0.2% and the U.S. 10-year yield fell to 4.678%.

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, matching expectations, prompting markets to cut the implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 40%. The dollar index was flat on Thursday but was set for a 0.4% weekly rise. The dollar slipped to 155.2 yen from near a four-decade peak close to 164, while the euro was little changed at $1.1523.

U.S. stocks finished mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.26% at 7748.58 and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.55% at 26588.49, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.06%. Strong quarterly results from AI infrastructure firms including CoreWeave boosted sentiment toward the AI trade and helped lead technology stocks higher. Softer inflation data pushed expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged next month to 62%. Super Micro Computer jumped 19.51%, while Dell gained 8.9% and Hewlett Packard rose 7.41%, as some energy and solar names declined.

U.S. consumer prices rose 3.4% in July from a year earlier, easing from 3.5% in June, Labor Department data show. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was 2.5% year over year, also lower than the prior reading. Energy prices fell 1.5% on the month, though gasoline remained up 24.5% from a year earlier and fuel oil rose more than 39%. Food and medical services costs each increased 2.7% year over year.

U.S. stocks rose after a tame inflation report eased expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up, while the S&P 500 added 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.54%. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a hike to 3.75%-4% fell by more than six percentage points to 41.9%, while the odds of rates staying at 3.5% to 3.75% rose to 58.1%. Headline CPI rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI increased 0.2% and 2.5%, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said more than one hike could be needed.