Commodity

Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat futures all fell on Friday, with the most-active contracts down 27.5 to 47.5 cents on the week. Managed money sharply increased net short exposure, lifting the net short position to 71,206 contracts, according to CFTC data. The market is awaiting the USDA’s June Acreage report due Tuesday, with total wheat plantings expected at 43.8 million acres, alongside export sales down 16% year on year and mixed French crop and harvest indicators that add to near-term supply pressure.

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Chicago Board of Trade wheat, corn and soybean futures fell Friday, led by a 2.1% drop in the September wheat contract to $5.8875 a bushel. Prices faced seasonal pressure as the Northern Hemisphere winter wheat harvest accelerates. Traders are bracing for USDA reports due Tuesday that are widely expected to be bearish, including higher planted acreage and quarterly stocks above a year earlier. Hot weather threatening European crops offered a counterweight, though trading remained centered on expectations for a strong U.S. harvest.

Oil prices fell as expectations of more supply grew after the Strait of Hormuz reopened and Iran was set to lift sales under a 60-day interim deal with the U.S. August Brent futures traded around US$72 a barrel on Friday, the lowest since late February, while Western Canada Select slipped below US$60. Canadian retail gasoline prices, however, stayed elevated at about $1.57 to $1.58 per litre, with inventories depleted during the war and taxes limiting how quickly pump prices can fall, according to Dan McTeague of Canadians for Affordable Energy.

September ICE New York cocoa (CCU26) fell 2.90% on Friday, while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) slid 2.56%. Prices weakened as signs of larger supplies emerged, including a 28% y/y jump in Nigeria’s May cocoa exports to 18,000 tonnes and an upward revision of more than 260,000 tonnes to Ivory Coast port arrivals this season. ICE cocoa inventories also rose to a 1.75-year high of 1.75 million bags. Despite medium- to longer-term support tied to El Niño risks and weak pod formation in West Africa, the near-term supply increase triggered heavy long liquidation.

Coffee prices fell after forecasts called for drier weather in Brazil’s main growing areas next week, a shift expected to allow the harvest to resume after earlier rain-related delays. ICE arabica and robusta futures both declined on Friday, with September arabica (KCU26) down 1.16% and September robusta (RMU26) down 0.96%. ICE arabica inventories dropped to a 2.25-year low, but traders focused on near-term supply recovery. The USDA and Rabobank raised 2026/27 production expectations for Brazil and the global market, while Vietnam reported sharply higher exports, reinforcing a looser supply outlook.

Cotton futures fell across the board on Friday, led by the July contract down 274 points to 70.66 cents per pound. ICE certified cotton stocks edged down by 2,197 bales to 187,250 bales, while The Seam reported Thursday sales of 569 bales at an average 68.44 cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index sank 250 points to 85.05 cents per pound, and weakness in crude oil and the U.S. dollar index failed to lift cotton.

U.S. wheat futures fell across the board on Friday, with the leading contracts on CBOT, KCBT and MIAX down 8–13 cents. Weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 552万吨, down 16% from a year earlier, reaching 26% of the USDA annual forecast and trailing the five-year average. In France, the soft wheat crop rated good/excellent slipped to 74% and durum fell to 58%, with harvest progress at 7% and 19%, respectively.

Sugar prices jumped as India’s monsoon rains ran well below normal, fueling concerns about lower cane yields and tighter global supply. India’s Meteorological Department said cumulative monsoon rainfall was 42% below normal as of June 26. Additional support came from a weaker Brazil sugar mix and export constraints tied to India’s quota system. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) lowered its 2026/27 global production outlook to 180 MMT and projected a deficit of 262,000 MT, helping push both New York and London sugar contracts up more than 3%.

Saudi Arabia has restarted crude loadings at the Ju’aymah offshore terminal in the Persian Gulf after an interruption of nearly four months, with two very large crude carriers beginning to load and another waiting offshore. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to about 80% of prewar levels, prompting Barclays to cut its 2026 and 2027 Brent price forecasts. Brent fell 4.2% to $72.28 a barrel as markets focused on supply returning quickly even as shipping risks such as Iran-linked vessel attacks remain in view.