Commodity

Global gold ETFs posted net inflows of $3.04 billion in the week ended August 7, marking a third consecutive week of net additions, according to World Gold Council data. The US, China and the UK led gross inflows totaling $4.38 billion, while the US also accounted for the largest outflows of $1.33 billion. Net ETF investment stands at $13.69 billion year-to-date, while China and India have continued to contribute positive flows totaling about $11 billion. Gold rose more than 6% over the week, and analysts cited $3,950–4,000 as a support zone.

Copper is up more than 17% this year, but the rally cooled after accelerating in early August to a record $6.90 a pound before pulling back. The Democratic Republic of Congo has disclosed a June 29 order banning exports of copper and cobalt concentrate. Markets are also weighing expectations that the U.S. could delay or only partially implement copper import tariffs, a scenario seen keeping current stockpiling flows and a tight supply-demand backdrop in place and leaving prices trading within the existing range.

India is considering limiting the use of sugarcane for ethanol production in the next crushing season after below-normal rainfall in key growing regions raised concerns about lower cane output. The move would prioritize domestic sugar supply to cool soaring prices. The government plans to make a final decision by the end of the month, and the measure, if adopted, would increase sugar availability and ease supply tightness.

Timely rain across Australia’s eastern growing belt has sharply improved prospects for the 2026 wheat crop. Rabobank lifted its estimate from an initial low of 21.3 million tons to as high as 30 million tons, still below last year’s 35.8 million tons but above the 10-year average, according to the bank. Bendigo Bank Agribusiness put the crop at about 30 million tons, with potential for an upgrade to 33 million tons.

Spot gold broke above $4,300 an ounce on August 6, with its weekly gain topping 7% at one point for its best showing since January. Data from the People’s Bank of China showed China’s gold reserves rose to 76.08 million ounces at the end of July, up 640,000 ounces from June. South Korea’s central bank returned to gold buying after 13 years, with reserves at about 104.4 tonnes, or roughly 3.5% of its foreign exchange reserves. A World Gold Council survey found 45% of central banks expect to increase gold holdings over the next year.

Copper is trading above $14,000 per tonne, near a historic peak. China’s refined copper imports exceeded 200,000 tonnes in July, the highest monthly total in at least 12 years. LME copper stocks have fallen to a five-month low, while the cash-to-three-month spread has widened to about a $120-per-tonne backwardation from around $40 a week earlier. The market is forecasting a global refined copper deficit of about 35,000 tonnes in 2026, underscoring ongoing tightness in the physical market.

Strikes planned for this weekend at Port Hedland, Australia’s largest iron ore export port, could cost BHP about $100 million in revenue and the West Australian government more than $7 million in royalties. Port Hedland exported 580 million tonnes of iron ore in the last financial year, accounting for almost three quarters of outbound commodities from the Pilbara ports, according to Pilbara Ports data. The dispute centres on workers’ pay and conditions and includes a 24-hour ship-loading ban followed by a 24-hour stoppage.

Gold rose after U.S. July payrolls fell by 23,000. The weaker jobs report cooled expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Prices climbed above $4,300, marking a seven-week high.

Ghana’s 2025/26 cocoa harvest has reached 750,000 tons, up 25.6% year on year, adding to signs of improving supply. In Ivory Coast, farmers have shipped a cumulative 2.11 million tons to ports in the current marketing year, up 20% from the same period a year earlier. Nigeria’s June cocoa exports rose 30% year on year to 18,922 tons, while Asia’s Q2 grindings jumped 25% to 224,646 tons, far above expectations. With supply rising, cocoa prices are under pressure and ICE futures are slightly lower.

China’s central bank added 20 tons of gold to its reserves in July, extending a run of monthly increases to two years. Spot gold climbed 1.8% to $4,316 an ounce. Institutional investors also increased holdings in gold ETFs, reinforcing bullish sentiment.