U.S. consumer inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, pushing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike higher. The implied probability climbed to 85% from 67%, adding pressure on global equities and lifting bond yields. Brent crude fell 3.3% to $104.04 a barrel, but was still up more than 8% for the week as Middle East tensions supported prices.

Unusual fund flows have emerged in the crypto ETF market, with XRP ETFs registering a rare one-day inflow that surpassed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The move has sparked debate over sector rotation and XRP’s regulatory outlook, though the drivers and durability of the inflows remain unclear. Market watchers are tracking whether the shift points to changing institutional preferences.

A U.S. core CPI reading at a 66-month low triggered sharp volatility across crypto markets. Within 60 minutes of the data release, Bitcoin surged more than 4.5% to break above $79,000. Ethereum rallied more than 8% over the same window, reaching $2,640 for the first time in seven months. Both assets moved higher immediately after the inflation data hit.

Traders are planning to ship large volumes of Brazilian arabica to ICE delivery warehouses as ICE-certified inventories hover around 220,000 bags, a 26-year low. Expected deliveries of roughly 300,000 bags would not lift stocks to the 1 million-bag level traders consider comfortable. Brazil’s coffee exports to Belgium jumped 245.3% year on year in August to more than 525,000 60kg bags, according to government data analysed by Brazilian broker Terra Investimentos. Tight exchange stocks have been a key factor keeping coffee prices around $3 per lb.

U.S. stock index futures rose before Friday’s open, with S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 futures up about 0.7% to 0.8%. The move came as oil prices retreated, with Brent crude down 3% to $104.44 a barrel after earlier jumping to the highest levels since May amid the war with Iran. An inflation update that came in near expectations also helped steady sentiment.

Traders are preparing to deliver large volumes of Brazilian Arabica coffee to ICE exchange warehouses to rebuild certified inventories that have fallen to a 26-year low. Olam and Louis Dreyfus Company are seeking to certify up to 200,000 bags for delivery against the December futures contract, with shipments to Antwerp, Belgium, rising. Although the 2026/27 season is forecast to be in surplus, ICE stocks remain well below normal levels and Brazil’s harvest has been delayed by extreme weather, keeping futures prices around $3 per pound.

U.S. Labor Department data showed the consumer price index rose 0.4% in August and was up 3.4% from a year earlier, unchanged from July. After the inflation report, the dollar strengthened against major currencies including the euro and the Swiss franc, according to the Labor Department. The figures reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

The International Energy Agency projects global oil supply will drop by 5.7 million barrels a day in 2026, a 6% decline, after previously forecasting a 4% drop this year. WTI crude remains near $100 a barrel, while Brent is at $104. In the U.S., 30-year fixed mortgage rates have moved above 7%, a sign that higher borrowing costs are starting to weigh on housing activity.