The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes show a growing number of policymakers are willing to consider additional interest-rate increases, pointing to war-driven inflation that continues to run above the central bank's 2% target.

Odaily Seer data tracking shows Polymarket now assigns a 96% probability that Israel will take military action against Iran's nuclear facilities before April 30, up 51 percentage points over the past 24 hours. Under the contract terms, the market resolves "Yes" if Israel carries out a military strike against any Iranian power plant before April 30; otherwise it resolves "No". Qualifying actions include drone or missile strikes, aerial bombardment, and operations conducted by Israeli ground forces. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic measures are excluded. Attempts that are intercepted, shot down, or fail to reach the target also do not count. Senior Israeli officials said Israel views a ceasefire as premature and wants military operations against Iran to continue for at least another month. Odaily Seer said it will keep monitoring prediction-market moves ahead of pricing.

On-chain data show an "Unknown Whale 1" address transferred 102,759,069 USDC, worth about USD 102,752,339, to Aave.

BIG: Traders wagered $950M on oil prices sliding just hours before Trump announced a U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

JUST IN: Since the ceasefire announcement, no oil or gas tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz. Only four dry-cargo vessels have passed through.

Spot Bitcoin ETF trading volume exceeded $2.4 billion today. BlackRock posted $1,929,043,894 in volume, followed by Fidelity at $212,482,516 and Grayscale at $121,155,354. Other issuers reported: Bitwise $66,020,855; ARK Invest $60,027,049; Morgan Stanley $33,922,127; VanEck $19,710,048; Invesco $7,220,577; Valkyrie $5,020,781; Franklin $2,913,423; WisdomTree $1,332,373; Hashdex $16,955.

Huo Xing Finance reported on April 9, citing The Wall Street Journal, that under the U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework Iran is tightening its de facto grip on the Strait of Hormuz by limiting traffic to roughly 12 vessels per day and requiring ships to coordinate in advance on fees and transit permits. All transits must be cleared by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Data show the daily minimum number of approved vessels since April has fallen to just four, down from more than 100 per day before the conflict. Iran is also seeking to roll out a tiered fee regime: ships carrying Iranian cargo would be allowed through free of charge; vessels from friendly countries would pay; and vessels linked to the U.S. or Israel could face restrictions. Industry sources estimate a supertanker's transit fee could be as high as $2 million. If sustained over the long term, the arrangement would give Iran substantial leverage over around 20% of global oil supplies. The U.S. continues to call for freedom of navigation in the strait, while Iran has shown no sign of easing its controls. Analysts say the policy has become Tehran's key bargaining chip in ceasefire talks and is likely to keep roiling global energy and shipping markets.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is set to begin trading futures tied to Sui Network (@SuiNetwork) on May 4, a development that could broaden institutional participation in the $SUI token. CoinDesk reports CME's expanding lineup of crypto products is already generating roughly $8 billion in daily notional volume.

Markets: Coinbase has added USDai_Official's native token, $CHIP, to its official listing roadmap, according to an update posted via the CoinbaseMarkets account. While a roadmap entry does not guarantee an exchange listing, being flagged by Coinbase is widely viewed as a significant milestone in the crypto sector. USDai counts investors including yzilabs, cbventures, dragonfly_xyz, and hiFramework.