Trading

Bitcoin's post-halving history suggests prior cycle lows formed 875–917 days after halving, while the current 2024 cycle is about 750 days in. BTC has gained close to 15% across March and April, yet May sentiment remains cautious as it trades sideways near $80k. At the same time, 78.3% of supply is now held by long-term holders, a 4.2-point shift equal to 830,000 BTC moving into longer-term wallets, alongside six straight weeks of net inflows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Altcoin trading activity on centralized exchanges has been trending higher, adding fuel to renewed discussion about a possible "altseason." CryptoOnchain wrote on CryptoQuant that the 30-day moving average of the "CEX Volume Ratio: Others vs Top 5" has moved above its 365-day average, while Ethereum was priced at $2,329, up 1% in the past 24 hours.

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), finished its first trading month with no daily net outflows after launching on April 8. The fund has taken in about $193 million in net inflows and manages over $240 million in assets, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively attracted more than $3 billion across six straight weeks of net inflows through May 8.

ChatGPT-generated analysis says XRP may present higher-probability entries on pullbacks near support or after a confirmed breakout, as it consolidates following earlier momentum linked to institutional demand and ETF activity. The model highlights $1.30–$1.36 as an accumulation area and $1.18–$1.22 as a deeper support zone, while a bullish continuation would require holding above $1.45–$1.50 with strong volume. At press time, XRP traded at $1.43, up nearly 1% over 24 hours and about 2.6% on the week.

Dogecoin saw quieter trading over the past 24 hours, with volume dropping nearly 50% to $669 million while DOGE slipped 0.48% to $0.108. After rallying to $0.117 on May 6, the coin pulled back toward the closely watched $0.10 area, which has acted as a key level in recent price action.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs opened May with large inflows, then turned negative as May 7 logged $268.5 million in net outflows while BTC traded around $80K. BTC rose from near $76,000 on May 1 to about $82,000 on May 6 even as ETF flows weakened. Exchange outflows and higher network activity helped support price resilience during the outflow stretch.

On May 10, 2026 at 13:23, Bitcoin on-chain metrics showed aSOPR staying above 1 for nine straight days since May 1, signaling continued profit realization. Analysts also flagged the LTH/STH SOPR ratio at 1.13 versus a 90-day SMA of 0.982, while price faced the daily 200 MA at $82,747, about $1,980 above the then-current level.

CME Group says it is preparing to introduce Bitcoin Volatility futures tied to the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVX), with the contracts still awaiting final approval from the CFTC. The BVX is described as a 30-day measure of expected BTC volatility derived from CME options data, enabling market participants to trade volatility rather than price direction.

In early May, Ethereum on-chain activity rose alongside a sideways ETH price range of $2,250 to $2,450. Darkfost highlighted several Binance inflow spikes, including 216,152 ETH ($511 million) on May 6 and 98,552 ETH ($224 million) on May 8. The analyst linked higher Binance reserves—about 3.62 million ETH, or 24.6% of exchange-held ETH—to continued consolidation as ETH traded near $2,329, up 0.6% in 24 hours.

Ethereum’s Q2 gain stands at 10.48%, but its April return was 7.3% and May’s upside has been about 2x smaller than Bitcoin’s, keeping ETH from showing clear relative strength. Binance has logged large early-May deposit spikes—216,152 ETH on May 6, 98,552 ETH on May 8, and 125,146 ETH on May 9—while exchange reserves rose to 3.62 million ETH, adding to concerns about distribution pressure.