U.S. Sends 15-Point Ceasefire Proposal; Oil Slides More Than 5% While Gold Jumps 3.7%
Wall Street steadied on Wednesday after weeks of tension-driven selling, as reports said Washington had delivered a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran. Israel's Channel 12 also reported the U.S. is pushing for a one-month ceasefire. The headlines quickly flipped pre-market sentiment: Dow futures climbed more than 0.9%, broader U.S. index futures gained over 0.7%, and crude prices broke lower.
Brent fell more than 4% at the open and dropped back below $100 a barrel, helping lift risk appetite across Asia, with Japan, South Korea, and Australia among the markets higher. The move followed a sharp risk-off session on Tuesday (March 24), when the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 84 points to 46,124, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6,556, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.84% as technology and communications names led declines. Energy, materials, and utilities were among the few S&P sectors to finish in positive territory.
Even with Wednesday's relief bid, key software and large-cap tech names remained pressured. Oracle is down more than 50% from its September high; ServiceNow has fallen nearly 6%; Salesforce is off more than 6.5%; Microsoft has slipped close to 3%. The software ETF (IGV) is down 23% year-to-date, marking its lowest level since February 25, as concerns persist that Amazon's new AI tools could intensify competition.
Risk gauges remained elevated. The VIX closed Tuesday at 26.95, down from above 30 at the start of the conflict but still well above typical levels. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose further to 4.39%, a notable break from the usual pattern in which geopolitical stress pulls yields lower. Rate expectations have also swung dramatically: markets that priced roughly a 95% chance of cuts a month ago now imply around 5%, while nearly 40% of pricing reflects at least one hike. The combination of oil-driven inflation risk and tighter financial conditions has sharply reduced perceived room for the Fed to ease.
Commodities diverged sharply.
Crude: ceasefire hopes hit prices fast. WTI traded around $87.60 a barrel, down more than 5%, while Brent sank back below $100. The selloff reflects early positioning for an end to hostilities, even though the Strait of Hormuz has not fully reopened and Iran has not formally responded. Traders have been whipsawed by similar bursts of optimism: on Monday, March 23, after a Trump Truth Social post referencing "productive talks," Brent plunged nearly 11% in a day, only to rebound sharply when tensions flared again Tuesday.
Gold: rallying as the oil-inflation link breaks. Spot gold jumped nearly 3.7% to about $4,563 an ounce, while silver rose roughly 6.66%. The move ran against the recent pattern where higher oil lifted inflation expectations, strengthened the dollar, and weighed on bullion. Wednesday's sharp drop in crude disrupted that chain, pressuring the dollar and reviving demand for gold. Structural support also remains in place after gold hit a record $5,600 earlier this year, and ongoing central-bank buying continues to underpin the market through geopolitical shocks.
Crypto: bitcoin steady near $70,000 as institutions keep accumulating. Bitcoin ended Wednesday around $70,888, up about 0.28%, holding in a tight range near the $70,000 level. The token remains more than 40% below its roughly $126,000 peak in October, yet has shown relative resilience in recent weeks as some flows shifted toward bitcoin during periods of heightened Middle East risk.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote on Monday, "We believe Bitcoin has bottomed and is moving upward," reiterating a year-end target of $150,000. He cited a reversal in early-year ETF outflows and noted spot ETFs now hold about 6.1% of bitcoin's total supply. Strategy, the digital-asset "treasury" firm, holds about 3.6% and remains a major buyer. Recent market metrics showed the Fear & Greed Index at 25 (extreme fear), BTC dominance around 58.8%, and total crypto market capitalization near $2.52 trillion.
Regulatory risk resurfaced as a key overhang. Circle (CRCL) fell about 20% on Tuesday in its largest one-day drop on record after a draft Stablecoin Transparency Act reportedly proposed banning platforms from offering any form of stablecoin "yield," a direct threat to Circle's model. Coinbase also dropped more than 8%.
Market focus now centers on Iran's response. If Tehran signals acceptance this week, traders expect oil could slide below $80, rate-cut bets could revive, and war-battered tech shares could see a stronger rebound. If Iran refuses or stays silent, Wednesday's relief rally risks fading as quickly as prior head-fakes. Investors say the true inflection point will be evidence of normalizing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, not headlines alone.
