Arthur Hayes argues Bitcoin's bull market has already started and says a renewed surge in US dollar and Chinese yuan liquidity could lift BTC back to $126,000. In his May 12 essay "The Butterfly Touch," he links the next crypto upswing to macro credit expansion driven by AI infrastructure spending, military escalation, and a shift away from just-in-time supply chains. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $80,680.

Bitcoin's latest move higher is being attributed to stronger spot buying after demand indicators flipped from contraction to growth as markets processed U.S. economic data. BTC broke above $80,000 by early May, traded near $80,900 at publication time, and briefly approached $83,000 after clearing the $78,000–$79,000 supply zone. On-chain spot CVD jumped after May 8, while analysts say conviction buyers now hold roughly 4 million BTC.

Exodus Movement, Inc. (NYSE American: EXOD) sold 1,076 bitcoin from January through March 2026, cutting its BTC treasury by about 63% and ending the quarter with 628 BTC. The $73.2 million in proceeds helped build cash for the May 1, 2026 acquisition of W3C Corp. subsidiaries Monavate and Baanx, as Q1 revenue fell to $22.7 million and the company posted a $32.1 million net loss.

Strategy generated over $206 million from its STRC perpetual preferred stock program and said it also bought $43 million in Bitcoin on May 11 after a one-week pause. STRC traded near its $100 par value as daily volume neared $445 million, while the instrument’s dividend mechanism is designed to adjust based on where shares trade.

Bitcoin miner MARA reported Q1 revenue of $176 million, down 18%, alongside a $1.3 billion net loss, and its shares fell 3.4% on May 11 to close at $12.93 before a pre-market bounce. The company sold 20,880 BTC in Q1 at an average of $70,137 (about $1.5 billion), using $1.1 billion of proceeds to pay down debt and support an AI infrastructure shift.

Bitcoin-linked equities have outpaced the broader market over the past month as BTC drew nearly $184 billion in inflows and traded around the $80,000 range. A basket of 10 major BTC-exposed firms averaged about 42% gains versus the S&P 500's 8.7%, with Applied Digital up 69.8%. Spot demand and continued corporate accumulation—including 56,338 BTC added since April 1—are cited as key supports if momentum holds.

Bitcoin has climbed about 37% since April 2026, with BTC reaching $82,000 on May 6 after breaking above $81,000 on May 5. CryptoQuant research points to a three-month high in realized profits—up to 14,600 BTC on May 4 and more than 20,000 BTC over 30 days—raising the risk that profit-taking could add volatility and threaten the rally.

Bitcoin has remained above the $80,000 level while on-chain profitability stayed elevated, with adjusted SOPR holding above 1 for nine straight days in May. Analysts pointed to a CSH Score reading near 41 and a 30-day uptick in exchange reserves as signals that prior bear-market rallies saw sharp corrections, even as current strength appears driven more by reduced selling than sustained demand.