5 godz. temu
South Korea Opens First Probe Into Polymarket Election Betting as Global Regulators Tighten Screws on Prediction Markets
South Korean police have launched the country's first investigation into alleged illegal gambling by domestic users of Polymarket, targeting residents who wagered on the outcome of the June 3 local elections.
The Gangwon Provincial Police Agency is leading the case at the National Police Agency's request. Investigators are tracing cryptocurrency transaction records to identify users across the country. Individuals found to have participated could face fines of up to 10 million won (about $6,500) under Article 246 of the Criminal Act.
The scrutiny follows surging activity on election-related contracts. Polymarket's now-resolved market tied to the 2026 Seoul mayoral race alone showed $52.2 million in volume, implying Korean election markets have reached well into the tens of billions of won.
South Korea is ranked 15th in Chainalysis' 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index, joining other high-adoption markets that have taken steps against prediction platforms. Among the top 20 jurisdictions, at least six have moved against platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi through a mix of gambling law enforcement, derivatives restrictions, ISP blocks, and user-level actions.
Regulators are tightening as volumes climb. Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from under $5 billion in September 2025 to more than $10 billion in May 2026. For comparison, legal U.S. sportsbooks averaged roughly $14 billion in monthly wagers across 2025.
Category concentration is also drawing attention. Since July 2024, sports, politics, and crypto have accounted for 91% of Kalshi's global volume and 90% of Polymarket's. Sports alone represented 80% of Kalshi trading, while politics made up 32% of Polymarket's—the segments regulators tend to police most aggressively. Kalshi has flagged more than 400 suspicious trades since the start of 2026, more than double its total for all of 2025.
Different legal frameworks, similar outcomes
Brazil: On April 24, Finance Minister Dario Durigan said National Monetary Council Resolution No. 5,298 blocked 27 platforms, including Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and Robinhood's forecasting feature. The measure also prohibited derivatives tied to sports, online gaming, and political, electoral, cultural, or social outcomes, leaving only contracts linked to economic benchmarks such as exchange rates or interest rates. Durigan said the goal was to prevent unregulated betting from becoming embedded in household finances as Brazil tries to reduce consumer debt. Kalshi was also caught by timing: it announced a distribution partnership with brokerage XP International in March 2026, one month before the block.
India: Parliament passed the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025 in August 2025; it received presidential assent the same month and took effect May 1, 2026. The law classifies prediction markets as prohibited "online money gaming," covering event contracts regardless of whether operators present them as derivatives or forecasting tools. India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) issued a blocking order against Polymarket and is preparing a similar action for Kalshi. On April 25, MeitY also warned VPN providers against enabling access to blocked platforms.
Indonesia and Thailand: Indonesia blocked Polymarket after markets circulated on the platform tied to a potential early end to President Prabowo Subianto's term. Thai cybercrime authorities had previously classified Polymarket as illegal online gambling.
Spain: On May 26, Spain ordered ISPs to block Polymarket and Kalshi while the gambling watchdog DGOJ pursues disciplinary proceedings expected to last three to four months. Spain is outside Chainalysis' top 20, but the case rests on consumer-protection enforcement that can apply even when a product is framed as a derivative.
United States: U.S. oversight remains split between federal CFTC regulation and state-level gambling claims over the same contracts. Kalshi operates with a designated contract market license, and Polymarket relaunched a U.S. exchange in late 2025 after acquiring a regulated derivatives firm. Several states argue sports and election contracts constitute gambling regardless of CFTC oversight, producing litigation that fragments market access. In April 2026, Polymarket International posted $9 billion in trading volume versus $1.3 billion on Polymarket U.S. Separately, the House Oversight Committee opened an inquiry in May 2026 into whether government employees traded on nonpublic information, with Chair James Comer signaling possible legislation to bar members of Congress and administration officials from participating.
Where the market may go next
A constructive path would see major financial centers accept event contracts as legitimate derivatives when used for economic, financial, or hedging purposes, while forcing platforms to drop sports, politics, and elections to operate legally. Under this model, CFTC-style compliance becomes the template: a regulated onshore layer for narrow financial contracts alongside an offshore, crypto-native layer that continues to draw retail demand until payment friction, app-store enforcement, or VPN pressure narrows access.
A more restrictive path would see broad derivatives bans like Brazil's and "online money gaming" classifications like India's spread to other high-crypto-adoption markets. Because sports, politics, and elections drive the vast majority of volume, platforms that rely on those categories may be unable to remove them without fundamentally changing their business. A market-integrity shock—such as a documented insider-trading case tied to an election or geopolitical event—could accelerate enforcement momentum. Kalshi's 400-plus suspicious-trade flags in the first five months of 2026 highlight the risk.
One likely outcome is segmentation: regulated financial contracts in jurisdictions willing to treat limited event categories as derivatives; licensed gambling products where outcome contracts are treated as bets under consumer-protection rules; and geofenced, crypto-native markets offshore, supported by stablecoins and wallets until access constraints tighten.
South Korea's move underscores a shift from platform-level blocks to user liability, with authorities using crypto transaction trails to identify individuals and summon them for questioning.
Source: CryptoSlate