Bitcoin's underwater supply has moved above 40% as BTC is down more than 16% so far in Q2, even while it remains up over 7% for the quarter. CoinMarketCap community analysts say much of the underwater supply is tied to U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF buyers with an average cost basis around $83,400, while long-term holder supply has reached a record 15.8 million BTC. They add that fading regulatory optimism and persistent macro uncertainty could still test investor conviction through 2026.

Nakamoto Inc. has recorded about $224 million in losses on its Bitcoin position in less than a year, leaving its BTC holdings down over 35%. The company bought roughly $679 million of BTC at an average of $118k and later sold 284 BTC at $70k three months ago. Over the past year, its stock price fell 99.3% from $956 to $6.5 as Bitcoin hovered around $73k after peaking near $126k in October 2025.

Crypto Patel outlined several Bitcoin (BTC) buy zones after price slipped below $74,000, saying he is gradually building a position and may add on further pullbacks. He highlighted accumulation areas near $60,000, $45,000, and $35,000, and also projected longer-term upside targets of $200,000, $300,000, and a potential peak around $500,000 over 2027–2028.

From Oct. 8, 2024 to April 22, 2026, three major projects separately alleged that Peter Todd, Adam Back, or the Hal Finney–Len Sassaman pair could be Satoshi Nakamoto, with each suspect denying the claim. None presented cryptographic verification or any movement of the roughly 1.1 million BTC long linked to Satoshi-era mining. Polymarket contracts tied to a Back confirmation and to Satoshi wallets moving showed 6% and 7% odds, with $14,598 and $3.1 million in volume.

Bitcoin has faced persistent selling pressure over the last week, trading around $73,400. Since January 19, its Realized Cap fell 3.63% from about $1.12 trillion to $1.08 trillion, a $40.847 billion decline, alongside a price slide of over 20% from $92,593. Large wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC reportedly sold about 612,753 BTC between May 11 and May 28, with BTC later quoted near $73,485.

Bitcoin traded mostly flat on Saturday after sliding to about $72,642 on Thursday, then hovering near $73,000—around 11% below its $83,000 peak. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said on Friday that on-chain conditions still resemble a bearish structure and, based on prior PnL drawdown patterns, the cycle could remain pressured until early 2027. Data cited in the report also points to slowing accumulation among whales and “dolphins,” alongside softer spot activity and weaker inflows into exchange-traded Bitcoin products.

By 30 May 2026, Bitcoin was trading around $74,000, with several indicators suggesting its rebound was losing support. Whale-sized spot activity reportedly thinned after the $80K rejection, aNUPL turned negative again in the mid-$70Ks, and fund holdings fell from about 1.37M BTC to 1.3M BTC after an April peak.

Bitcoin has seen ETF outflows exceed $4.01 billion since May 7, as institutional positioning cooled while spot buyers continued to absorb supply. BTC traded around $73,459 after revisiting the $73,000 support zone, with oversold Stoch RSI readings but bearish Parabolic SAR still overhead. On-chain, the NVT Ratio rose 21.81% to 23.24, adding to signs that the recovery lacks broad participation.