North Korea has rejected U.S. accusations tied to cybercrime, calling the claims \u0022absurd slander.\u0022 Separately, DPRK-linked cryptocurrency theft has surpassed $6B in total since 2017.

Russia has introduced a comprehensive bill aimed at regulating cryptocurrencies, marking a significant step toward a clearer legal framework for digital assets. The proposal is expected to shape how crypto-related activity is conducted in the country and could influence broader market sentiment as investors assess potential impacts on trading, compliance, and industry participation.

North Korea has dismissed U.S. allegations that it funds cryptocurrency theft, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying via KCNA that the claims are "absurd defamation" and a "political tool" designed to justify "hostile policies." Data from TRM Labs shows that since 2017, hackers linked to North Korea have stolen more than $6 billion in cryptocurrency. Their share of global hacking losses rose from under 10% in 2020 to 64% in 2025. In the first four months of 2026, the same group was accused of stealing about $577 million, representing 76% of global losses.

## Market Snapshot Prediction markets are pricing a 99.7% YES probability that Bitcoin will be above $66,000 on May 6, signaling near certainty. The contract for Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by December 31, 2026 trades at 4.1% YES, underscoring significant long-term uncertainty. ## Key Takeaways – Kraken's parent, Payward, has acquired Bitnomial, strengthening Kraken's ability to offer regulated derivatives in the U.S. – Pricing in longer-dated Bitcoin forecasts suggests the move could support constructive sentiment over time. – Near-term Bitcoin level contracts imply little expected impact, with markets already highly confident about short-term price positioning. ## Article Body Kraken, via parent company Payward, has completed its acquisition of Bitnomial, a derivatives venue licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The deal provides Kraken with the regulatory footing to offer eligible U.S. clients a broader set of crypto derivatives, including spot margin, perpetuals, and options. With the CFTC overseeing these activities, the transaction highlights the continued buildout of a more regulated U.S. crypto-derivatives landscape. The move also fits a broader industry pattern of expansion through regulated platforms, following prior U.S. market buildouts involving NinjaTrader and Small Exchange. ## Market Interpretation Market pricing points to a supportive backdrop for longer-term Bitcoin sentiment, including the path implied by contracts tied to a $200,000 target by 2026. Short-term expectations appear largely unchanged: the 99.7% YES pricing for Bitcoin above $66,000 by May 6 suggests the acquisition is not expected to materially shift near-term levels. Overall impact is viewed as moderate, reflecting strategic significance rather than immediate price effects. ## What to Watch Focus remains on U.S. regulatory developments affecting crypto derivatives, which could reshape liquidity and product availability. Key players include the CFTC and major exchanges such as Kraken and Coinbase. Any material announcements from large institutions on crypto adoption could also move long-horizon sentiment and pricing. Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.

BlackRock has asked the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to remove a proposed rule that would cap tokenized assets at 20% of stablecoin reserve holdings, arguing the restriction is unnecessary and could curb innovation. In a 17-page comment letter submitted at the close of the 60-day feedback period for the OCC's draft rulebook published March 2, 2026, the world's largest asset manager said reserve risk should be assessed by credit quality, liquidity and duration, rather than by whether an instrument is recorded on a blockchain. The proposal is part of ongoing implementation of the GENIUS Act, a U.S. stablecoin law signed last year by President Trump. Under the draft framework, a stablecoin issuer with $1 billion in reserves could hold no more than $200 million in tokenized instruments, with the remainder kept in conventional assets such as cash or U.S. Treasury bills. BlackRock pointed to its tokenized Treasury fund BUIDL as a key example. The fund holds about $2.6 billion and is used to support stablecoins including USDtb. BlackRock warned that applying the 20% cap could constrain the use of tokenized products like BUIDL in reserves even when the underlying assets are high quality and liquid. The firm also asked the OCC to broaden the list of eligible reserve assets by allowing Treasury ETFs to qualify and by including two-year U.S. Treasury floating-rate notes. Tokenization activity is already significant, with roughly $27.65 billion in real-world assets currently tokenized. Market forecasts cited by industry participants see the sector potentially reaching $16 trillion by 2030, though BlackRock said restrictive limits could slow adoption. Not all commenters favored looser rules. The Brookings Institution submitted a response the same day urging tighter reserve safeguards, underscoring the policy divide regulators face. The OCC is expected to finalize its approach by January 2027, a decision that could shape the trajectory of U.S. stablecoin regulation and the broader market for tokenized assets.

South Korea is stepping up efforts to launch a won-pegged stablecoin after roughly $115 billion shifted into dollar-backed tokens in 2025, stoking concerns over foreign-exchange flows and policy control. Regulators, banks and fintech firms are advancing rival proposals as the country prepares a Digital Asset law expected this quarter. The Bank of Korea said the push reflects growing stablecoin usage and mounting worries about cross-border capital movements. The central bank called won stablecoins "currency-like substitutes" and said they require tight supervision. It warned that uncontrolled issuance could undermine monetary policy transmission and destabilize the FX market, while also creating avenues to sidestep reporting requirements for cross-border transactions. The Bank of Korea also argued that issuance by nonbanks could clash with Korea's separation of banking and commerce. It advocated a phased approach in which banks lead early issuance under existing regulatory standards, with expansion to other entities only after formal risk assessments. Private-sector activity is moving ahead despite regulatory uncertainty. TokenSquare launched KRWQ, a won-based payment infrastructure built on BSV blockchain technology, targeting real-time payments, enterprise settlement and AI-driven transactions. CEO Oh Eunjung said the platform is designed for large-scale payment processing rather than trading. The project includes compliance features such as KYC and AML controls, and custody support from Korea Digital Asset. A separate KRWQ stablecoin is also listed on EDX Markets, developed by IQ and Frax Finance. That version is positioned for institutional trading and hedging linked to offshore non-deliverable forward markets exceeding $100 billion. Policy views remain split on governance and control. DWF Labs' Andrei Grachev said the Bank of Korea prefers bank-led structures with majority ownership, while the Financial Services Commission is considering a more flexible framework aligned with Europe's MiCA rules. Demand in the market remains strong. Tiger Research CEO Kim Gyujin said offshore KRWQ trading at times has reached about 1 billion won per day. South Korea has about 18 million crypto investors, underscoring broad domestic participation in digital-asset markets.

New York Attorney General Letitia James has reached a settlement that will require crypto platform Uphold to pay more than $5 million tied to its promotion of the failed CredEarn yield program, after thousands of investors suffered losses. The agreement is memorialized in an Assurance of Discontinuance under New York's Martin Act. Uphold accepted the state's factual findings but did not admit liability. Regulators said Uphold marketed CredEarn as a low-risk savings-style product without clearly explaining how returns were generated. Investigators also found that Cred sent user funds to MoKredit, a Chinese microlending service that made short-term, unsecured loans to borrowers with no credit history, including very small loan amounts that raised questions about risk controls. The attorney general's office further said Uphold amplified claims that Cred carried comprehensive insurance coverage, even though authorities stated no such protection existed for retail crypto losses at the time. According to the settlement, more than 6,000 users invested about $50 million into CredEarn via Uphold. After Cred's bankruptcy, those investors sustained losses exceeding $34 million. Court filings later listed more than 6,000 claims totaling $140 million, with valuations increasing as crypto prices rose. The case is notable for focusing on a distributor rather than a product issuer, reflecting an expanded enforcement approach. New York concluded Uphold functioned as an unregistered broker under state law, extending beyond earlier federal actions that largely targeted issuers such as BlockFi. Under the terms, Uphold must enhance due diligence before listing third-party products, including reviewing financial audits, insurance representations, and compliance controls. The company must also validate key claims using independent sources, including auditors and competitors. Uphold CEO Simon McLoughlin disputed parts of the state's findings, saying the company was also harmed by Cred's collapse and noting that federal investigators did not accuse Uphold of knowingly promoting fraud. Uphold also said only a small number of impacted users were New York residents. The settlement also requires Uphold to forfeit any recovery it may receive from Cred's bankruptcy proceedings; the company is currently owed more than $545,000 from that process. The outcome underscores intensifying scrutiny of platforms that distribute crypto financial products, with regulators increasingly holding intermediaries responsible for how investment risks are presented and disclosed when offering third-party yield services.

Gerstein Harrow LLP has asked the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York for a restraining order to bar the Arbitrum DAO from transferring 30,766 ETH—worth more than $73 million—frozen after a $292 million attack on the Kelp protocol. The firm said its clients won default judgments against North Korea in three cases filed in 2010, 2015 and 2016, seeking a combined $877 million in compensatory and punitive damages, and claims the frozen assets are tied to North Korea. Kelp DAO was attacked on April 18 by the TraderTraitor group, which is affiliated with the Lazarus Group.

A weekend roundup from @TheBlockCo: Coinbase said it had reached an agreement on how stablecoin yield would be handled under the Clarity Act, a step that could reopen the way for a long-delayed Senate markup. Reuters reported that Iranian crypto exchange Nobitex was founded by sons of an elite political family with ties to the country's supreme leadership. CryptoQuant said bitcoin's April surge looks like a "speculative rally" rather than demand backed by fundamentals, raising the risk of a pullback. BlackRock, in a comment letter on the GENIUS Act, urged the OCC to drop its proposed cap on tokenized reserves and broaden the range of eligible assets. Creditors linked to North Korea terrorism cases sought to seize Arbitrum-frozen Kelp DAO ETH ahead of a DeFi United vote. The New York Attorney General announced a $5 million settlement with Uphold in its first enforcement action focused on a promoter of a crypto yield product.